The death of Fidel Castro last November was a moment of monumental significance in Cuban history. After news broke of the revolutionary’s death, Fidel Castro’s brother Raul Castro announced that he would be resigning his position as the country’s leader, ending the nearly six-decade era of Castro rule. Many speculated that this would represent a new beginning for the small island nation; however such hope may be premature.
Since Cuba’s revolution in the 1950s, the country has endured autocratic rule and periods of economic turmoil brought on by U.S. trade embargoes. A once flourishing economy (thanks in large part to the exportation of sugar to the U.S.), Cuba saw an overall decline in it’s ranking of life expectancy, literacy and average income. The Cuban National Office of Statistics estimated that income salaries had dipped to around $18.66 a month in 2008, with most Cubans struggling to make ends meet.
2014 brought some hope of economic prosperity with Raul Castro and President Obama announcing the normalisation of previously hostile relations. In a speech to the Cuban people, Obama announced that he had come with the intention to “bury the last remnant of the Cold War.” However, some uncertainty as to the efficacy of this sentiment came in 2017 when President Trump announced a back-pedalling of these agreements and a desire to negotiate a new deal. Exactly what this means remains to be seen.
So what should Cuba expect as it enters its post-Castro/post-Cold War era?
Economy
By all indications, the Cuban economy is experiencing change, albeit at a slow pace. The main obstacle to economic development is the significant lack of private industries; which were discouraged and highly curtailed under Castro’s communist policies. As a result, around 75% of Cubans are employed by the government. This means they can only afford to pay them meagre salaries of no more than $40 a month.
Additionally, the price of consumer goods is astronomically high, with some items costing around double of what they are worth. This too was the result of embargoes as they caused a supply-demand discrepancy allowing the prices of everyday items to sky-rocket.
Yet, increased tourism has caused an influx of wealth into the country, particularly from U.S. businesses such as Airbnb. The highest earning Cubans usually work in the tourism industry. However, the government still tightly controls the economy and much of the money earned tends to end up in its hands due to high taxes.
Castro’s replacement?
Replacing Raul Castro is Miguel Diaz-Canel, representing a clear break from the past by promising to establish an economy with market-based tenancies. He has committed his government to non-isolationist foreign policy and has embarked on a process of modernisation. Chief among his concerns is to provide Cubans with access to the internet, as currently only 5% of homes are connected to the world wide web.
However, some have little confidence that the new government marks a clear end to the Castro era. Diaz-Canel was educated under Castro’s communist system and held various roles in the governments of both Fidel and Raul. Moreover, he has been described as a Communist Party loyalist with a childhood friend saying “he was very active, very militant and very unconditional in his loyalty to the regime.”
Diaz-Canel’s succession to the country’s leadership was no surprise to many as he was hand picked for the position by Raul Castro. Although his policies have shown an openness to modernisation, they are still firmly in-line with previous communist policies.
Notably, Diaz-Canel appears to have a complex relationship with free speech. Although he supports expanding internet access in Cuba, he has shown tendencies towards suppressing criticism of the government. According to the New York Times, Diaz-Canel led a campaign whilst in school to silence those who read and discussed literature that wasn’t approved by the Communist Party. Recently, he was captured threatening to shut down a website who’s content he considered subversive to the government.
Future: Stagnation of Modernisation?
The impact of Fidel Castro’s death on Cuba still remains to be seen. Though there have been a number of baby steps in a modern direction, the country still has to contend with a sluggish economy and leaders who appears to have one foot in the past and a toe in the future. What is clear is that change will come slowly, and it is likely that the Cuban people will be the last to benefit from it.
