“I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States.
America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail. We will not allow American cities to be threatened with destruction. And we will not allow a regime that chants “Death to America” to gain access to the most deadly weapons on Earth.”
President Donald J. Trump
May 8th 2018
It’s already begun. Little over a day after President Trump announced the US would be withdrawing from what many considered to be the international community’s greatest diplomatic triumph in recent memory, Iran and Israel engaged in a prolonged missile exchange over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in the early hours of Thursday morning (Damascus time). Israel says Iran struck first while Iran denies any involvement. Whatever the truth may be, one thing is certainly clear: the President’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will usher in a new era of instability for a region already in crisis.
What is the JCPOA?
This deal was struck by the permanent five members of the UN Security Council (France, UK, Russia, China and the US), Germany and Iran in July 2015. Broadly speaking, Iran committed to curtail its nuclear research and enrichment to “exclusively peaceful purposes” and allowed itself to be subject to the most intrusive regime of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the world. The IAEA has stated Iran had been complying with its end of the bargain. In return, the international community agreed to terminate nuclear-related sanctions which had, prior to 2015, effectively crippled Iran’s economy. Unfortunately for the Iranian middle class, it is yet to see the economic windfall it was promised in the three years since the signing of the JCPOA.
Why did the US pull out?
Interpreting the actions of politicians will always require reading between lines. With trademark disgust, the President consistently remarked on the 2016 campaign trail that the deal was one of the “worst ever negotiated” and that he would withdraw as soon as he took office. That he took so long is perhaps the biggest surprise in all of this.
Officially, Trump stated the JCPOA “allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and – over time – reach the brink of a nuclear weapon”, even if Iran fully complied. Further, he fundamentally disagreed with the sanctions relief that would lead to an unfreezing of billions of dollars for the Islamic Republic, dollars which, he argued, would be used directly for state sponsored terrorism. All in all his view that the IAEA’s inspections were inadequate was compounded by the release of an Israeli report detailing apparent Iranian non-compliance. Whether or not these objections are reasonable is an exercise best left to others.
What’s the unofficial reason? Notwithstanding the merits and shortcomings of the deal itself, the US has long had strong military partnerships with Saudi Arabia and Israel, the two states whose cries of outrage were loudest when the deal was signed back in 2015. You would be forgiven for wondering why the US signed in the first place, then. To answer that we need look no further than President Obama. It’s no secret the then-President and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had an icy relationship which undoubtedly made the US decision to sign the deal an easier one. At this point Obama no longer had any real need to kowtow to powerful Israel lobby groups for election funding as his second term was nearing an end. Trump however is in a different position. Since taking office he’s been more than willing to strengthen Saudi and Israeli ties which had frayed during the Obama years. These relationships further confirmed his JCPOA fears.
What does this mean for the region?
Oil
Make no mistake – oil has always been, and will continue to be, the underlying reason for most actions in the Middle East. Iran is currently the third-biggest exporter of crude oil within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and we can be safe in assuming the re-imposition of sanctions by the US will curb this. During the last round of sanctions, Iran’s oil supplies fell by around 1 million barrels per day. Yet, it re-emerged as a major oil exporter after these were lifted in January 2016. In March of this year, its supplies rose to almost 4 percent of global output. The market’s immediate reaction to the President’s decision saw a three percent rise in the price of oil the following day (according to Reuters). Saudi Arabia will likely fill this hole in supply, as it did during the Iran-Iraq war, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the US invasion of Iraq. An economic boon for the Saudis, it seems.
Increased regional conflict
Trump’s decision to pull out of the JCPOA will no doubt embolden hardliners in Iran who have criticised the deal as flawed from the beginning. Already, we have seen the burning of US flags in the Iranian parliament the day after US withdrawal. This will be a huge blow for Rouhani and for regional peace. Rouhani, a moderate who has tried to restrain voices within calling for direct military action on Israel and Saudi Arabia is likely to be sidelined in the coming years. Even if he is not, such restraint has clearly been suspended in the meantime anyway, as demonstrated by yesterday’s events in the Golan Heights. Unfortunately for civilians this is simply an indication of what is sure to come in any of the current Middle East hotspots, whether it be in Syria again or in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been fighting the Saudi-led government since 2015.
Nuclear proliferation
Iran reached its highest level of uranium enrichment of 20% when the sanctions regime reached its highest point under President Obama. What does that tell us about the effect of sanctions as a policy? It is utterly clear as a matter of simple cause and effect this was not an approach that was working. The Iranians have already stated that nuclear enrichment, peaceful or otherwise, is a source of pride and the question must be asked – what does the US gain in terms of nuclear surveillance that it did not have under the JCPOA? Other than the obvious fact that the deal provided for IAEA inspections, the international community was still able (as it will be forced to do if the agreement crumbles) to engage in covert satellite surveillance. Logically, if sanctions are vigorously reimposed as Trump has promised Iran will again begin to enrich its uranium to previous levels. Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman stated just last week that if Iran has a nuclear bomb, it too will have a bomb. This state of affairs caused by the President’s decision is an affront to global nuclear non-proliferation efforts and significantly raises the prospect of a regional arms race.
US Isolation?
Predictably the other signatories to the JCPOA have stated they will seek to remain in the agreement. EU Foreign Minister Francesca Mogherini has since sought to allay global fears by affirming:
“As long as Iran continues to implement its nuclear-related commitments, as it is doing so far, the European Union will remain committed to the continued full and effective implementation of the nuclear deal.”
Similarly, outspoken UK Foreign Minister Boris Johnson tweeted that the UK “remains strongly committed to the JCPOA and will work with E3 partners…to maintain it”, which would demarcate a clear division between the US and some of its traditional allies. Practically though, it’s difficult to see how the deal will remain intact especially if the US decides to implement restrictions on European companies that trade with Iran. Such a move would ultimately force parties to make an economic choice between the US or Iran, a choice which at this stage would seem to be an easy one notwithstanding the fact the EU exported nearly €11 billion in goods to Iran in 2017.
What now?
The JCPOA as we know it is dead. A deal which, considering the alternatives, was the most practical and peaceful policy option in dealing with the long-standing issue of Iranian nuclear non-proliferation. A deal which chose diplomacy over division, reason over reaction and maturity over madness. By withdrawing, the President has turned his back on all of this in a move that will only cause further chaos in the region – and if it does lead to a nuclear arms race, that chaos won’t be limited to the Middle East.
