The British people voted to leave the European Union a little under two years ago. This sudden and somewhat surprising departure is the equivalent of a spoiled child threatening to leave home because their parents will not give them more pocket money. They both have a similar amount of resolve and an unjustified sense of entitlement. Britain has been a drag to the process of European integration since its inception. While some believe that the UK will be better off outside the EU and that they are “never getting back together,” in reality the EU just needs to “shake it off” and move on.
“Haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate”
British foreign policy has implicitly sought to divide Europe through various wars and religious strife. To quote Yes Minister, Britain has “fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans and, with the French against the Germans and Italians.” The British only joined the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973, 20 years after its initial conception. This delay was abetted by 10 years of vetoes by France as President Charles de Gaulle accused the British of a “deep-seated hostility” towards the European idea. The UK has never been fully on board with Europe, whether it be the first referendum on membership, Thatcher’s antipathy to a European super-state or Westminster’s refusal to adopt the single currency. This vote to leave was a natural extension of this entrenched view that the UK was better off without increased integration and that the European idea will be able to thrive without any obstruction under a Franco-German direction.
“Fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake”
The British people have been sold a lie. ‘Leave’ politicians have presented a mere hypothesis to naive and dissatisfied voters. Slogans such as Theresa May’s “Brexit means Brexit” gives no clarification on future British-EU relations. If you bought a dictionary and all it said was “words mean what they mean” then you wouldn’t be very impressed. Yet, this is the logic May and other senior government officials has been spouting. So why have a meaningless slogan? Probably because no one knows what Brexit entails. There is a lack of consensus in the country let alone May’s Conservative Party. Tory rebels were able to force her to concede that there will be a parliamentary vote on whatever deal is negotiated. Leaving the EU is unprecedented and probably one of the most complicated tasks anyone could ever undertake.
“But I keep cruising, can’t stop, won’t stop grooving”
Britain may be fighting for its economic future and control over its borders but the EU is fighting for its very raison d’être. Giving Britain concessions on any of the four freedoms of the single market (the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour) would undermine the supranational body’s very existence. If countries can reap the benefits of membership without bearing all the responsibilities then the EU will be swept into the dustbin of history.
Current negotiations can be explained by a game of chicken. Imagine the UK and the EU are two cars speeding towards each other. They will collide unless one of them swerves. Whoever swerves losses out and is the chicken. In Brexit negotiation, whoever concedes first will receive the short end of the metaphorical stick. By limiting its own ability to swerve, the EU can strengthen its negotiating position. This has been done by:
- Telling everyone they won’t swerve – Through the European Council negotiating guidelines on Brexit they have publicly committed not to swerve;
- Excessive bureaucracy – The EU requires a vote taken by the European Council and Parliament as well as having the decision pass through the quagmire of bureaucracy of the European Commission, making it very easy for a deal to be blocked at any stage.
The EU have cut their own breaks and thrown the steering wheel out the window while a majority of the people in the British car have awoken to their fate. So who do you think is going to swerve first?
“Players gonna play, play, play, play, play”
Britain is also operating under the illusion that it will be easy to strike good trade deals with non-EU countries after Brexit. This is coming from a country who will have significantly reduced bargaining power going from the second largest economy in the world as part of the EU to the sixth and who has not negotiated a trade deal in over 30 years. This will also be disastrous for trade between the EU with British Parliamentary briefing papers specifying this makes up 43% of the UK’s exports and 54% of its imports. It would lose access to the 36 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and those in the process of being negotiated. They could try to roll over these existing deals but other countries will still see the UK’s weakness and exploit it.
In contrast, European Commission studies on trade indicate that the UK only makes up approximately 8% of the EU’s total exports and only 18% when you exclude other member-states. It does not take a degree in economics to realise that no matter how you spin it, the UK is much more dependent on the EU for trade. In a situation where there is no Brexit deal, a large segment of the British economy would go right off the White Cliffs of Dover whereas the EU would be much better placed to weather the storm.
The EU’s single market is in effect the best free trade deal in existence and the UK want to trade this in for potential deals with countries like the United States. Given Donald Trump’s “America First” policy and his scepticism of trade agreements such as NAFTA, it is unlikely he will enter an FTA with Britain in the foreseeable future. This is even before you consider that trade deals take an average of five years to negotiate and that the UK will be negotiating from an extremely weaker position. Their position will only worsen as time goes on as they will be desperate to avoid unfavourable WTO rules. Britain my try and play the field but it is unlikely they will have any luck.
“Shake it off”
Brexit will allow for the reinvigoration of the European project as it will strengthen the Franco-German push for greater integration and reform. This will allow the EU to become a much more cohesive body as one of its most difficult members has departed. They have a whole list of nation-states desperate to join and the loss of one member, albeit an important one, is easily shaken off.
